The non-governmental Center for Study of Army, Conversion and Disarmament believes that Russia is ready to conduct large-scale warfare against Ukraine, and even a minor reason can start this process.
This was reported on the website of the Centre.
The organization considers three crisis dates to start the possible war: August 24 (the Independence Day of Ukraine), September 5 (G20 summit), and September 18 (the Single Voting Day in Russia). The experts do not exclude that the announced for September “North Caucasus-2016” military training exercise can become the military operation against Ukraine.
The organization believes that three factors that can lead to aggression will come together in August – September: the advanced stage of elections in the United States, being distracted by the Ukrainian events; Europe’s own problems after Brexit; the Election Day in Russia, requiring mobilization of electorate.
“A “window of opportunity” to use the last chance and fix a number of his strategic errors made during the past 2.5 years has right now opened for Putin. If he wastes this chance for him the situation (both internal and external) can become a vital challenge to the middle of 2017 (the new United States Administration will start to actively influence over world politics, the Russian economy will be at the peak of the crisis),” believe the experts of the Centre.
In this regard, the organization considers it expedient to get the army of Ukraine fully operational during the period August 20 – September 20; to address the issue of imposing martial law in the border regions of the country; to call the West to increase pressure on Russia.
As we have informed, the Federal Security Service (FSB) of Russia said about prevention of terrorist acts in Crimea, allegedly organized by the Intelligence Directorate of the Defense Ministry of Ukraine.
The Ukrainian force authorities consider the statement provocation and an element of the hybrid war against Ukraine.